EV batteries tend to be considered no longer good for automotive use when they fall below 70% of their initial usable capacity.
EV battery normal degradation is around 1% of their current capacity annually, and some amount of degradation is baked in even on top of the rated total capacity which is above the usable capacity.
Your uninformed "wager" is just plain wrong. When modern lithium ion EV batteries were new about 10 years ago, yes that was about how long they lasted. The new packs last 350k+ miles.
After a battery pack gets retired from a car it doesn't simply get thrown away. 70% degraded may not be good for automotive use, but the modules still have a lot of capacity left and are useful for a number of secondary applications.
After that the materials in a battery are extremely valuable, and there are already billion dollar battery recycling companies that are still scaling up.>What will your range be by then? 100mi?
Would depend on the initial capacity of the battery pack. A 2022 Tesla Model 3 LR pack that's 70% degraded after driving 350k miles in 2042 would still have a rated range of 210 miles. Not that far off from the standard range model from a few years ago. Not really a car that could do road trips anymore, but still more than capable for daily use around town, and that's at the very upper limit of the degradation before retirement.
By then, the cost of batteries should be a fraction of what it is today, and their capacity for the weight should also be increased. Already its gone from ~$1000 a kWh at 117 Wh/kg to ~$100 a kWh at 200 Wh/kg.>Eventually I'm sure we will see electric chargers at gas stations, but that won't be for a very long time if at all.
Personally I don't think most gas stations are a good fit for fast chargers, but the 250kW chargers going in at many Casey's locations enable getting back on the road in under 10 minutes. Which is about the length of a road trip stop at a Casey's anyway.