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/LPMTG/ La Palma Mega Tsunami General - waiting room edition

ID:X7ep08uV No.339701428 View ViewReplyOriginalReport
>What is it?
La Palma is a volcanic island that is part of the Canary Island chain. Large portions of the island are unstable, and with the right conditions, could cause a massive landslide into the sea. High end estimates range between 50 and 200 km^3 of material, ultra high end estimates at 600+. The displacement, if it happens all at once, would cause a mega tsunami.
Recently over 4000+ small earthquakes have been happening under the island, indicating a magma swelling, which could lead to eruption and/or collapse.

>Explanation of what would happen.
https://youtu.be/6utAunBKXV4 [Embed] [Embed] [Embed]

>If the earthquakes are happening now, why would there be a tsunami?
The tsunami caused in this scenario is driven by the displacement of water due to the collapse of parts of La Palma into the ocean. This is 2.8 km^3 of material sliding during the Mt. St. Helens collapse.
https://youtu.be/UK--hvgP2uY?t=73 [Embed] [Embed] [Embed]

>Quake list.
http://www.ign.es/web/resources/volcanologia/tproximos/canarias.html
https://www.emsc.eu/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro#1

>Why does USGS not report these quakes?
USGS's official stance is that they do not report earthquakes above 4.5 magnitude that do not occur within US territory, or cause major damage.

>How dangerous is it if it happens?
If you live directly on the coast, and the worst case scenario happens, potentially very bad. Travel times are 0.25-5 hours to Africa, 1-2 hours to Spain/Portugal, 3-4 Hours to Britain, 5-8 hours to Brazil and 9-10 Hours for the US. To estimate damage, treat it as worse than a Category 5 Hurricane storm surge in the US.
The other Canary Islands could see waves in excess of 500 meters.
https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

>Infrequent Volcanic update reports
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/lapalma/sep2021seismic-crisis/current-activity.html